Jósef Sigurdsson
Associate Professor of Economics
Working papers
We study the effects of corporate acquisitions on workers using Swedish administrative data and document substantial, persistent earnings losses following acquisitions. These losses reflect both displacement and wage cuts among stayers from target firms. We find no evidence that increased monopsony power accounts for these wage cuts. Instead, they are concentrated in acquisitions where the acquiring-firm CEO sat on the board of the target prior to the transaction. Such acquisitions increase acquiring-firm profits and CEO pay, without affecting total employment or revenue, consistent with rent redistribution. Overall, acquisitions reduce wages and disrupt employment, with profit gains partly extracted from workers.
with Arash Nekoei and Dominik Wehr
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Revise and resubmit, American Economic Review
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We study occupational stress, from its initial symptoms to permanent productivity loss, using Swedish administrative data. Stress symptoms emerge and steadily intensify over a year, culminating in a tipping point of burnout. High-stress occupations do not see higher burnout rates among stress-tolerant workers, but disproportionately affect those with low stress tolerance. Burnout results in substantial and permanent earnings losses, with similar magnitude across genders, despite women being three times more susceptible. Burnout’s toll spills over, reducing spousal earnings and children’s human capital (school grades and college enrollment), especially in lower-educated families, thereby stalling intergenerational mobility. Through sick leaves, earnings losses, and spillovers, burnout reduces national labor income by 3.6%. Combining our cost estimates with a prediction model of burnout—enhanced by a brief, high-frequency occupational stress survey—can optimize the scope and targeting of preventive programs and reduce the economic burden of burnout.
Revise and resubmit, Review of Economic Studies
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I study how transitory increases in the opportunity cost of schooling affect dropout rates and long-run outcomes. Exploiting a tax-free year in Iceland and comparing teenagers around compulsory schooling age, I document increased dropout rates and a permanent loss in educational attainment for men, but not women. Consequently, they experience substantial lifetime earnings losses, enter occupations with limited career advancement, and have reduced marriage and fertility. Dropouts predominantly come from low-education—but not low-income—families and neighborhoods, consistent with misperceptions about the returns to education. The findings suggest that temporary economic booms can permanently reduce aggregate human capital accumulation.
Children disproportionately enter their parents’ occupations. We examine the implications of this tendency for intergenerational income mobility and talent allocation in the economy. Using Swedish data on cognitive and non-cognitive skills, we estimate a general-equilibrium Roy model in which access to occupations depends on parental occupation. Equalizing access reduces occupational following by roughly one-half and increases income mobility by about one-third without reducing output. Gains are concentrated among sons of low-earning fathers with skills suited to higher-paying occupations. Quasi-experimental evidence exploiting long-run employment declines in fathers’ occupations supports the model estimates: reduced following improves skill matching and raises earnings.
Publications
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2025. Vol. 17, Issue 4, p. 30–71
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Publisher's version | Manuscript | Paper Only | Online Appendix
Awarded the 2020 Peggy and Richard Musgrave Prize
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Media coverage: The Economist
Labor income earned in Iceland in 1987 went untaxed. I use this episode to study labor supply responses to temporary wage changes. Using a population-wide dataset of earnings and working time and two identification strategies, I estimate intensive and extensive margin Frisch elasticities of 0.4 and 0.09, respectively. Workers with the ability to adjust drive these average responses: extensive margin by young and close-to-retirement cohorts and intensive margin responses by workers in temporally flexible jobs, though secondary jobs contribute to one-tenth of the response. The results suggest that adjustment frictions may similarly explain differences in elasticities within and across countries.
LABOUR, 2024. Vol. 38, Issue 2, p. 278-293
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Publisher's version | Manuscript | Paper Only | Online Appendix
An emerging consensus is that the Frisch elasticity of labor supply is small. This may reflect a lack of salience, inelastic preferences, or prevalence of frictions. Studying survey data collected during a tax holiday in Norway, when earnings were untaxed during a transition between tax systems, I report three findings. First, 80 percent of adults were aware of the tax holiday. Second, one-fifth of adults responded by working more. Third, frictions in adjusting working hours or non-working time appear to be the reason for a majority of non-responses. The findings support the long-held notion that labor supply choices are constrained.
Review of Economic Studies, 2022. Vol. 89, Issue 3, p.1557-1592
with Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson
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Publisher's version | Manuscript | Slides | Online Appendix | Replication package
Media coverage: The Economist | A Fine Theorem | Marginal Revolution | The Hamilton Project | Vidskiptabladid | The Hindu
We exploit a volcanic “experiment” to study the costs and benefits of geographic mobility. In our experiment, a third of the houses in a town were covered by lava. People living in these houses were much more likely to move away permanently. For the dependents in a household (children), our estimates suggest that being induced to move by the “lava shock” dramatically raised lifetime earnings and education. While large, these estimates come with a substantial amount of statistical uncertainty. The benefits of moving were very unequally distributed across generations: the household heads (parents) were made slightly worse off by the shock. These results suggest large barriers to moving for the children, which imply that labor does not flow to locations where it earns the highest returns. The large gains from moving for the young are surprising in light of the fact that the town affected by our volcanic experiment was (and is) a relatively high income town. We interpret our findings as evidence of the importance of comparative advantage: the gains to moving may be very large for those badly matched to the location they happened to be born in, even if differences in average income are small.
Economic Journal, 2021, Vol. 131, Issue 636, p. 1742-1771
with Martin Flodén, Matilda Kilström, and Roine Vestman
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​Publisher's version | Manuscript | Slides | Online Appendix | Replication package
We examine the effect of monetary policy on household spending when households are indebted and interest rates on outstanding loans are linked to short-term interest rates. Using administrative data on balance sheets and consumption expenditure of Swedish households, we reveal the cash-flow transmission channel of monetary policy. On average, indebted households reduce consumption spending by an additional 0.23–0.55 percentage points in response to a one-percentage-point increase in the policy rate, relative to a household with no debt. We show that these responses are driven by households that have some or a large share of their debt in contracts where interest rates vary with short-term interest rates, such as adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), which implies that monetary policy shocks are quickly passed through to interest expenses.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2016. Vol. 78, , Issue 2, p. 50-66
with Rannveig Sigurdardottir
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Publisher's Version | Online Appendix
Media coverage: Centralbanking.com
Administrative data on monthly wages in Iceland during 1998–2010 provide new insight into nominal wage rigidity. Unlike the data used in previous work, ours have a higher frequency, minimal measurement error, and a long sample including a period of substantial macroeconomic instability. We find that the monthly frequency of nominal wage changes is 13 percent. Although nominal wage cuts are rare, their frequency rises following a large macroeconomic shock. Timing of wage changes is both time-dependent and state-dependent: we find evidence of synchronization of adjustment and contracts of fixed duration, but also that inflation and unemployment over the wage spell affect the timing of adjustment.
Institute for International Economic Studies, Monograph Series, Vol. 101, 2019. Stockholm University
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Policy Papers and Working Papers Not Intended for Publication
QMM: A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy
Central Bank of Iceland, Working Paper No. 71, December 2015 (with Ásgeir Daníelsson, Bjarni G. Einarsson, Magnús F. Gudmundsson, Svava J. Haraldsdóttir, Thórarinn G. Pétursson, Signý Sigmundardóttir, and Rósa Sveinsdóttir).
How "Natural" is the Natural Rate? Unemployment Hysteresis in Iceland
Central Bank of Iceland, Working Paper No. 64, July 2013 (with Bjarni Geir Einarsson).
Central Bank of Iceland, Working Paper No. 61, February 2013.
Unemployment Dynamics and Cyclical Fluctuations in the Icelandic Labour Market
Central Bank of Iceland, Working Paper No. 56, December 2011.